Bonanza, Bargain Or Bust? ESPN’s Innovative New Metric Measures NFL Draft Prospects’ Probabilities

ESPN’s Stats and Information Group (SIG) has developed a unique metric to tell fans how this year’s NFL Draft prospects will do when they enter the league – and football analyst Dan Orlovsky helps explain it in a new content series this week on SportsCenter.

SIG’s NFL Draft Projections assess the potential of prospective players using a new model which incorporates grades from Scouts, Inc. and NFL Combine measurements (full methodology available on ESPN+). The model also compares each prospect with his five most athletically similar players from previous drafts.

The special virtual studio segments break down five key players: Irv Smith, Josh Jacobs, Dwayne Haskins, Kyler Murray (see above), and Drew Lock (see below).

“I really like how these projections put the expectations for each player into perspective,” said Allison Loucks, director, SIG. “You always hear certain players are can’t-miss, but even the top guys in the draft are just a 65-to-70% chance to be a consistent starter. That can be jarring when you’re thinking about guys that are going in the top five or 10 picks.”

Learn more about ESPN and ABC Network’s NFL Draft coverage April 25-27 from Nashville, Tenn.